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The Fed Hikes to 3.75%–4% and Raises Its Rate Path
1 · Information What happened
On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Its statement describes growth as solid, productivity as strong, and hiring as keeping pace with the workforce. It says inflation "remains elevated" and that the hike will support a timelier return to the 2% goal. The projections released the same day point the same way. Officials' median rate path now sits at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, up from 3.8% and 3.6% in June. Their median forecast for 2026 PCE inflation rose to 3.7%.
IAM take Analysis · our view
Our view: this is the policy backdrop for gold since mid-September. The Fed describes growth as solid, and its projections put rates higher for longer than it expected in June. Higher expected rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, so any sign the Fed is softening, like the October 2 jobs report, gets attention on our desk. One detail: the 2026 median of 4.1% sits above the new 3.75%–4% range, which in our reading implies officials expect one more quarter-point hike before year-end.
Source: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (Federal Reserve, Federal Open Market Committee). Chart data: Summary of Economic Projections, September 15–16, 2026 (accessible table).The summary is IAM's own; read the original for full detail.
Watch The event on video
FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 · The Fed's own page, with the video, the transcript and the statement.
Watch on federalreserve.gov ↗FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026
FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026 · Opening statement only.
2 · Knowledge The facts we pulled out
| Fact | Value | As of | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate decision | 0.25 percentage points (hike) | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Federal funds target range | 3.75–4.00% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Vote | 12–0 | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Inflation goal | 2% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median fed funds projection, end-2026 (Sept / June) | 4.1 / 3.8% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median fed funds projection, end-2027 (Sept / June) | 4.1 / 3.6% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median fed funds projection, end-2028 (Sept / June) | 3.9 / 3.4% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median fed funds projection, longer run (Sept / June) | 3.2 / 3.1% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median PCE inflation projection, 2026 (Sept / June) | 3.7 / 3.6% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median core PCE inflation projection, 2026 (Sept / June) | 3.4 / 3.3% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median unemployment projection, 2026 (Sept / June) | 4.1 / 4.3% | Sep 16, 2026 | |
| Median real GDP growth projection, 2026 (Sept / June) | 2.3 / 2.2% | Sep 16, 2026 |
3 · Wisdom The bottom line Analysis
In three months the Fed raised its expected rate path by 0.3 to 0.5 point for each year from 2026 through 2028. In our analysis, that is a shift toward higher-for-longer. Tighter money tends to weigh on a metal that pays no yield, so data that could pull this path down matters for gold. The October 2 jobs report was the first major release since the meeting.
- September 2026
- June 2026
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections (Sept 15–16, 2026 accessible table). June did not include a 2029 projection.
Commentary only, not financial advice.
Reliability How well the facts hold up
None of this post's facts can be checked against another source yet (at least 2 are needed). The story comes from, or directly cites, an official source.
2 more facts have no second source on the desk yet
- Rate decision: 0.25 percentage points (hike)
- Inflation goal: 2%
Bias & Claims Bias & Claims check
This is a primary source: an official policy statement written in the institution's own voice, so there is no reporter. The flags concern how official statements work, not partisanship. The Committee's assessments of the economy are given as plain statements without supporting data, and its outcomes are stated as commitments ("will support", "will deliver"). The reference to elevated uncertainty doesn't say what the geopolitical developments are. The vote count (12–0) is given, so there is no hidden dissent.
Opinion presented as fact · 1Guesswork or forecast · 2Missing context or one-sided view · 1
In the article's own voice
- Opinion presented as fact
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.”
This is the Committee's assessment. The statement cites no figures, so readers need the economic projections or the data releases to check it.
- Guesswork or forecast
“Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.”
This states an expected effect as certain. The Fed's own projections released the same day put 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7%.
- Guesswork or forecast
“The Committee will deliver price stability.”
This is a commitment, not a forecast with a date or a probability.
- Missing context or one-sided view
“uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments”
The developments aren't specified.
Attributed to named sources
No flags.
Our own text, checked against the same standard
Same rubric applied to our summary, IAM take, bottom line, headline, and chart notes. Forecasts are attributed to their source, and our own inferences are labeled as analysis. 4 edits made on Oct 4, 2026.
See what we changed and why
- Summary · Loaded or emotional language
Before It also says plainly that inflation is still too high, and that the hike should help bring it back to the 2% goal sooner.
After It says inflation "remains elevated" and that the hike will support a timelier return to the 2% goal.
- IAM take · Opinion presented as fact
Before This is the backdrop for everything gold has done since: a Fed that's hiking into strong growth and plans to keep rates higher for longer than it expected in June.
After Our view: this is the policy backdrop for gold since mid-September. The Fed describes growth as solid, and its projections put rates higher for longer than it expected in June.
- IAM take · Guesswork or forecast
Before One detail stands out: the 2026 median of 4.1% sits above the new 3.75%–4% range, which reads as one more quarter-point hike expected before year-end.
After One detail: the 2026 median of 4.1% sits above the new 3.75%–4% range, which in our reading implies officials expect one more quarter-point hike before year-end.
- Bottom line · Opinion presented as fact
Before That's a deliberate move toward higher-for-longer. Tighter money is normally a headwind for a metal that pays no yield, so gold traders should watch for data that could pull this path back down, and the October 2 jobs report was the first real test.
After In our analysis, that is a shift toward higher-for-longer. Tighter money tends to weigh on a metal that pays no yield, so data that could pull this path down matters for gold. The October 2 jobs report was the first major release since the meeting.
